Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LISA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
 
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA IS A LITTLE
DISORGANIZED WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH CAUSING VERTICAL
SHEAR.  ALSO THERE IS STILL A HINT OF TWO POORLY DEFINED CENTERS. 
THIS ADVISORY IS FOLLOWING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT ONE.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS AND BRINGS LISA TO A HURRICANE
IN 72 HOURS.  THE  OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GUIDANCE.

THE MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO
WITH SOME EAST-WEST SPREAD AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS EXCEPT AT 12 AND 24 WHEN IT IS LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS SINCE
THE INITIAL MOTION IS GIVEN MORE WEIGHT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 12.1N  41.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.1N  42.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.3N  42.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 13.2N  43.2W    50 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N  43.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N  45.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  46.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N  46.5W    65 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Sep-2004 15:13:35 UTC