Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KARL


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
 
KARL IS NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE MORE OBVIOUS
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BECOMING
MORE UNCERTAIN. CI NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.5...5.0...AND 4.0 FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A
COMPROMISE OF 80 KT. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 963 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THIS PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP IS ALLOWABLE
FOR A HIGH-LATITUDE STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT KARL IS
IN THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE
COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
ENVELOPED WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF GREENLAND.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL...WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN CORRECTLY FORECASTING THE HURRICANE'S RECENT
INTENSITY TRENDS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
KARL IS STILL ACCELERATING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 020/26. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL THEN MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24
HOURS...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. KARL IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE
BRITISH ISLES BY 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 38.7N  41.5W    80 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 42.6N  40.9W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 47.5N  39.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 52.2N  35.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 57.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     27/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 24-Sep-2004 02:54:26 UTC