Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
 
KARL SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 115/102/102 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE APPEARANCE OF
THE SYSTEM OVER ALL IS EXCELLENT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS.
 
THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...290/10.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD... A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO
ERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP
RECURVATURE NEAR 50W.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
CONSENSUS.  
 
KARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE
SHEAR.  THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48
HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL
FOR THE CYCLONE.  IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT WHERE THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS OFTEN REACHED.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 17.2N  45.1W   115 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N  46.5W   120 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.2N  48.2W   125 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.7N  49.5W   130 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 22.8N  50.3W   130 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 28.9N  49.4W   115 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W    80 KT
 
 
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