Tropical Storm KARL

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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING
RATHER QUICKLY.  THE SYSTEM HAS A CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND A
NICE BAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST SIDE INTO THE CDO.  THERE
IS SUPERB OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH.  ALSO...THE SSTS AT
THESE LATITUDES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN MID-SEPTEMBER. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  AN
OBJECTIVE ODT CALCULATED A 77 KT WIND SPEED.  THE SUM OF THIS
INFORMATION IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO 55 KTS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. ALMOST NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE
LAST PACKAGE.  NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY
ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND
WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS SHIPS WANT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM
A HURRICANE RATHER QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY IT TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO
WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST WEIGHTED IN THE EARLY GOING...THUS MAKING
THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 11.5N  35.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 11.8N  36.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.2N  38.8W    75 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N  40.6W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.7N  42.2W    95 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N  44.8W   105 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N  46.3W   115 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N  47.0W   115 KT
 
 
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