Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IVAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

THE HURRICANE HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING AND THE LAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVATION...BY DROPSONDE FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS...WAS 910 MB.  IVAN RANKS SIXTH FOR LOWEST ATLANTIC BASIN
CENTRAL PRESSURE BEHIND CAMILLE IN 1969 AND MITCH IN 1998 AT 905 MB
EACH...ALLEN IN 1980 AT 899 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE AT
892 MB...AND GILBERT IN 1988 AT 888 MB. BOTH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
NO SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGES FOR SUCH EXTREME TROPICAL
CYCLONES.  IT SUFFICES TO SAY THAT IVAN IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
DEVASTATING IMPACT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA. AFTER IVAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR...SO SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2-3 DAYS.
NOTWITHSTANDING...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT
FIXES GIVE AN OVERALL MOTION OF ABOUT 285/7.  AS A WEAK LOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...SO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED. 
LATER IN THE PERIOD...IVAN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE THROUGH
THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

BEAR IN MIND THAT 3-4 DAY FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE IVAN WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 18.3N  80.0W   145 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N  81.0W   145 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 20.3N  82.4W   145 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 21.6N  83.7W   145 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 23.3N  84.5W   130 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  85.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 31.0N  85.5W    70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 02:33:05 UTC