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Tropical Storm IVAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES BUT
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AT THE MOMENT.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC
TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
CIMSS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF IVAN.  THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST UNCOUPLED GFDL MODEL RUN.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ESSENTIALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 16 KT. 
THE STEERING SCENARIO FOR IVAN REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
MODEL TRACKS ARE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER
THAN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z  8.9N  38.9W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z  9.2N  41.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z  9.9N  44.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 10.6N  47.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 11.4N  51.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N  57.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  63.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N  68.5W   100 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 14:52:52 UTC