Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm IVAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS HAD RAIN-FLAGGED 55 KT SURFACE WINDS
WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND SO DID A PASS FROM EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.  SINCE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN THE SAME ALL DAY
FROM SAB...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...45 KT.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 96 KT IN 120 HOURS UNDER
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OF COURSE WARM SSTS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFDL IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT...AS IS
USUALLY THE CASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GOES 12 INFRARED FIXES
BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE 2228Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY WIND FIELD.
THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/15.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
ALL SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF IVAN AND ALL
SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK EXCEPT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS.  THE GFS IS THE LEFT-MOST TRACK AND
THE NOGAPS AND GFDL EMBEDDED IN THE NOGAPS ARE THE RIGHT-MOST
TRACKS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL LEFT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.  IN ANY CASE IVAN SHOULD MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z  9.1N  35.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z  9.2N  38.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z  9.4N  41.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 10.2N  44.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 11.0N  47.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 12.5N  53.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N  59.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N  64.0W    95 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 02:32:48 UTC