Hurricane FRANCES

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HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW QUITE SYMMETRICAL AND THERE HAVE BEEN
HINTS OF AN EYE...OR WARM SPOT...ON THE INFRARED IMAGES. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING EVEN MORE WELL-DEFINED...AND GLOBAL
MODEL 200 MB WIND FORECASTS SHOW A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER/AROUND
FRANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS INEVITABLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT 4 AND
5 DAYS.  THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE...295/13...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY
AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS TROUGH
SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A
LEFTWARD TURN OF THE HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY...BUT HOW MUCH OF A
TURN WILL OCCUR IS UNCLEAR.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT 500 MB DOES NOT
SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN VERY STRONGLY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY 4-5 DAYS.  THEREFORE THE  FORWARD SPEED WILL PROBABLY
BE SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST
SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.

IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POINTS CAN EASILY
BE IN ERROR BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 14.0N  47.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N  49.1W    85 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N  51.2W    95 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N  52.8W   100 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 18.4N  54.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  56.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     31/0000Z 21.5N  59.0W   105 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 22.0N  62.0W   105 KT
 
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