Hurricane DANIELLE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
FINALLY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMOVED MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH SO
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INTERMETTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
DANIELLE IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AND BECAUSE A RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE
CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 31.0N  37.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 31.3N  38.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 31.8N  38.5W    25 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 32.5N  39.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 33.5N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 35.0N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 40.0N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z 44.0N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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