Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DANIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS SYMMETRICAL...THERE IS STILL AN
EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS
ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 90 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY THEREAFTER. DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY
FIVE.   

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. SOON DANIELLE 
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ACCELERATES DANIELLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL
MODEL KEEP THE HURRICANE NEARLY STATIONARY BY DAY 3 AND 4. I MIGHT
REGRET IT FOR NOT FOLLOWING THE GFS BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ACCELERATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE GFDL AND THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 

 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 24.0N  40.2W    90 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 26.0N  40.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  41.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 30.0N  40.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 32.0N  38.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 35.5N  36.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 38.0N  31.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 46.0N  21.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Aug-2004 14:42:29 UTC