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Hurricane DANIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004
 
THE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT. HOWEVER
...WHEN THE EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT...ODT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS T5.1...OR 92 KT. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE THREE
SATELLITE AGENCIES HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL INDICATE AT
LEAST 85 KT. GIVEN THE HIGHER ODT VALUES AND THE COLD TOPS STILL
PRESENT IN THE EYWALL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 90 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/14. THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS HAVE
BEEN COMING IN ON TRACK. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS INFLUENCED
BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 450 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.
AFTER THAT...DANEILLE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY
ROUND THE TOP OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 25N
LATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS IN 48-60H...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED
TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 34 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR ACROSS DANIELLE. USUALLY SUCH STRONG SHEAR CONDITIONS WOULD
HAVE DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING TO OCCUR...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. GIVEN THAT THE
SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SHEAR WITH TIME AND THAT AT LEAST
27C SSTS ARE AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 60H...THE INTENSITY OF
DANIELLE IS ONLY DECREASED SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS. BY 120H...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DANIELLE COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA IN THE ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 22.3N  39.9W    90 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 24.1N  40.6W    80 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 26.4N  41.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 28.6N  41.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 30.5N  40.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 34.0N  38.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 36.5N  34.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 39.5N  28.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Aug-2004 08:42:29 UTC