Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DANIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004
 
METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A MORE
ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A SMALL 10 NM
IRREGULAR EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5...5.0...AND 5.0
RESPECTIVELY. THE ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED A
BRIEF PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY ON A SINGLE IMAGE FROM 18Z...WHERE A
T-NUMBER OF 5.5 COULD HAVE BEEN DETERMINED.  HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT IMAGERY...90 KT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16...WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE 
INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A RECURVE
TOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE
CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING AN ABRUPT WEAKENING TREND AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THROUGH 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND... REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE 15Z FORECAST.
 
A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
DANIELLE MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 19.7N  38.6W    90 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 21.6N  39.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 23.7N  40.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 26.3N  41.2W    75 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 28.5N  41.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  37.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 37.5N  32.0W    40 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 16-Aug-2004 20:32:29 UTC