Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DANIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
 
THE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...WITH A MARKED
INCREASE IN BOTH BANDING AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR NEAR THE CENTER OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB
AT 0Z WERE T2.5...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM.

DANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS
WEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT
WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER FROM THIS
SCENARIO IS THE NOGAPS...WHICH WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND TAKES ITS
REMNANTS WESTWARD. GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS
ALTERNATIVE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE SOUTH OF
MOST OF GUIDANCE.
 
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 12.7N  24.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N  26.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N  29.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.3N  31.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  34.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  38.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N  42.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N  46.0W    55 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 14-Aug-2004 02:32:24 UTC