Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CHARLEY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
 
THE CENTER OF CHARLEY HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
FLORIDA.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE AT LEAST 125 KT AT LANDFALL AND THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 941 MB.  THE CLOSED EYEWALL HAD SHRUNK TO A
FIVE MILE DIAMETER.  A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 148 KNOTS
CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 130 KT.  IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY OVER LAND.

AN UNOFFICIAL WIND GUST TO 127 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR PUNTA
GORDA FLORIDA ALONG WITH A 943.6 MB SURFACE PRESSURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/19.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO
IS UNCHANGED WITH AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT TO
THE EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WHEN THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS AS
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HURRICANE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 26.9N  82.2W   120 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.7N  81.1W    75 KT...OVER WATER
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 33.9N  79.0W    60 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  76.3W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  72.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 47.5N  66.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 49.5N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     18/1800Z...INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 13-Aug-2004 21:12:25 UTC