Hurricane CHARLEY

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HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 992 AND 993 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND WAS 76
KNOTS WITH A SMALL CLOSED EYEWALL OF 8 N MI. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. SINCE THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODELS. THE GFDL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CHARLEY A 106-KNOT HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON
AS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 17.8N  78.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.6N  80.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 22.5N  82.3W    85 KT...NEARING CUBA
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  82.5W    90 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 29.5N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 38.0N  77.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 46.5N  68.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/0000Z 51.5N  53.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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