Tropical Storm CHARLEY

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TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS BEEN
MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK SO
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 285/16. 
THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.  CHARLEY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE.  THIS IS INDICATED BY
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
SHARP THE CURVE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONLY SMALL
CHANGES IN THIS CURVE WILL HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
IMPACT OF CHARLEY ON SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EARLY GOING...BUT
ESSENTIALLY BLENDS INTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD LOCATION AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED RESULTS IN THE
SAME FORECAST POINT  AT 48 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE NOT YET BEEN
ISSUED.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED A CLOSED EYEWALL AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
WAS DOWN TO 995 MB...ALTHOUGH ON A SUBSEQUENT FIX IT WAS 996 MB.
BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE CYCLONE IS NEARING HURRICANE
INTENSITY.  CHARLEY LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED ON MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES. 
THERE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THEREFORE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING WILL BE LAND. 
HOWEVER THE LAND MASSES OF JAMAICA...AND EVEN WESTERN CUBA...ARE
NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
SHOWS STRENGTHENING IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
OUTPUT. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY.  CHARLEY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONGER
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAN INDICATED HERE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 16.5N  76.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.9N  78.4W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N  80.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 22.7N  82.0W    80 KT...ON COAST OF CUBA
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  82.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 34.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 44.0N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/1200Z 51.0N  55.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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