Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm CHARLEY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. 
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM
AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KT.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER
TODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL
GUIDANCE.  CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM
SHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION. 
CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
DIVERGENT THEREAFTER.  BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.  HOWEVER
THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 13.7N  68.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 14.5N  71.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.7N  75.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N  78.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N  80.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  84.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 24.0N  86.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  87.0W    85 KT
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Aug-2004 14:32:18 UTC