Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BONNIE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
 
LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH.  THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN A BIT...1001 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WERE 44 KT.  A DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 41
KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS
40 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT
HAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND THE
AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT BONNIE HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AGAIN. 
BONNIE WILL BE PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER AND HAS ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS...SO THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE.  AS BONNIE
APPROACHES THE COASTLINE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BE
A LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 000/4.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  DATA FROM THE G-IV JET
MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOW MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ABOUT TO SCOOP
BONNIE UP.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK THAT SHOULD TAKE BONNIE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-36
HOURS.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 25.5N  90.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 26.7N  89.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.6N  88.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 34.0N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 43.0N  72.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Aug-2004 09:02:18 UTC