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Tropical Depression TWO


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
 
WE GAVE THE DEPRESSION THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THIS MORNING WHEN
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULDN'T CLOSE OFF A CENTER. THIS
AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST AND LESS
CONCENTRATED...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE SYSTEM HAS
RE-DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THE LACK OF A CENTER
THIS MORNING AND THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS SINCE THEN...
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL...WHICH
EARLIER STRENGTHENED THE DEPRESSION AND TOOK IT NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH...NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST AND DISSIPATES IT.  THE GFS ALSO
NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE MAJOR THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM
WOULD BE IF IT MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING RAINFALL TO
HISPANIOLA.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 13.5N  63.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Aug-2004 20:42:16 UTC