Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AND RAINBANDS.  IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF
THE SYSTEM...AN ESPECIALLY FAST MOVING ONE...HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION WITHOUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. SOMETIMES
FAST MOVING SYSTEMS HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE PRESENTATION BUT LACK
SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY RECON DATA IN THE PAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 24
HOUR OR SO. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE NONE
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION...AND THE GFDL WHICH
MADE IT A HURRICANE IN THE 06Z RUN NOW DISSIPATES IT IN THE 12Z
RUN.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS...
STEERED BY THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...
LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FORCING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 13.6N  56.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N  59.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N  63.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  66.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N  68.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N  71.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 26.5N  71.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  70.0W    70 KT
 
 
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