Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ALEX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004
 
THE EYE OF ALEX IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM AS ALEX BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS.  LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/5.5.  USING AN
AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF
WEAKENING SYSTEMS YIELDS 90 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER 17C WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

ALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
065/39. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE
ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST.  WHILE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY
WELL-CLUSTERED...THE MODELS APPEAR TO ALREADY BE BEHIND THE CYCLONE
AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 43.6N  52.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 45.8N  45.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 47.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 47.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Aug-2004 20:42:15 UTC