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Hurricane ALEX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
 
ALEX HAS BECOME ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS
MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE DIRECTLY IN THE
CENTER OF A CDO PATTERN WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULAR OUTFLOW IN
ALL QUADRANTS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5...OR 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...A DATA-T
NUMBER OF T6.0...OR 115 KT FROM TAFB...A RAW ODT VALUE OF T5.7...OR
108 KT AT 05/0015Z...AND A 3-HR AODT AVERAGE OF T5.6...OR 105 KT.
THE AVERAGE OF ALL THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 106 KT...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT. THIS MAKES ALEX THE STRONGEST
MAJOR HURRICANE ON RECORD TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 38N LATITUDE...WITH
HURRICANE ELLEN IN 1973 COMING IN SECOND AT 100 KT. THOSE ARE THE
ONLY TWO HURRICANES ON RECORD TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN
THAT SSTS ARE RUNNING MORE THAN 2C ABOVE AVERAGE IN THAT AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/22. ALEX IS STARTING TO ACCLERATE
AND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS LESS THAN A 30 NMI
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALONG THE
ENTIRE TRACK...WHICH IS A TREMENDOUS TRIBUTE TO THE HARD WORK THAT
MANY COMPUTER MODELERS HAVE PUT IN OVER THE YEARS.
 
ALEX MAY HAVE PEAKED...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COULD
STILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER A
WARM POOL IN THE GULFSTREAM BETWEEN 60-65W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...
ONCE ALEX CROSSES NORTH OF 42N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
WHICH WILL HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 38.9N  64.8W   105 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 40.7N  60.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 43.8N  51.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 45.8N  41.1W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 47.1N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Aug-2004 03:02:13 UTC