Hurricane ALEX
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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
ALEX IS STILL A HEALTHY CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...WITH GOOD
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A RAGGED EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN RINGS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 77 KT FROM
SAB...AND RECENT 3-HOURLY OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ALSO SUPPORT 77 KT.
AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED ONLY TO 75 KT.
THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT AN ESTIMATED 065/17. STEERING BY A STRONG
WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT SHOULD FORCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST. ALEX IS CURRENTLY OVER SST NEAR 26C...BUT IN A DAY OR TWO
THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...ABOUT 20 C..AS THE
HURRICANE ALSO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE LATITUDE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THEREFORE...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT 36
HOURS.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 37.7N 69.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 38.8N 65.8W 70 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 40.6N 60.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 43.1N 53.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 06/1200Z 45.2N 44.6W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 07/1200Z 45.0N 26.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 08/1200Z 46.5N 14.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/1200Z 50.5N 6.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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