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Hurricane ALEX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004

LAST RECON FIX...AT 0505Z...HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOUT THE SAME AS
SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING
THAT ALEX IS HOLDING ITS OWN.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
WATERS...AND WEAKENING.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ALEX INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH...ALONG WITH THE COLD WATERS...IS THE BASIS FOR THE
PREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY OUT TO 5 DAYS...BUT THE CYCLONE
MAY VERY WELL HAVE MERGED WITH A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC BY THAT TIME.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/16.  ALEX IS EMBEDDED IN A
WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT THAT WILL BE INCREASING IN VELOCITY AS
THE HURRICANE REACHES HIGHER LATITUDES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 37.1N  71.1W    80 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 38.2N  68.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 39.8N  63.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 42.0N  58.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 44.5N  50.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 45.0N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 45.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/0600Z 48.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Aug-2004 08:42:14 UTC