Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ALEX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION EARLIER THIS MORNING
FOUND 81 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 850 MB...ALONG WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE WILMINGTON AND
NEWPORT WSR-88D RADARS HAVE SHOWN 85 KT WINDS AT ABOUT 8000-9000
FT.  BASED ON THIS...ALEX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 70 KT HURRICANE. 
THE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYEWALL IN CONSTANT FLUX...OCCASIONALLY
FULLY CLOSED AND OCCASIONALLY OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ALEX IS
EMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND ALL GUIDANCE SAYS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE. 
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING A MORE EASTERLY
MOTION AFTER 24 HR THAN SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WITH SOME
SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS THUS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO SLOWER...A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS
AND GFDL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ALEX
OFFHSORE...ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.  SUCH A
LEFT JOG COULD OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST
OF ALEX AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

ALEX IS CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AND START TO SHEAR
ALEX.  THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR MORE...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING
SHEAR...COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE START OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  ALEX IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR AND BE ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HR.  ALEX COULD PEAK AT 80 KT OR SO
IN BETWEEN FORECAST TIMES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 33.5N  76.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 34.6N  75.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 36.3N  72.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 37.8N  68.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 39.4N  63.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 44.0N  50.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 09:02:11 UTC