Tropical Storm ALEX

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
ON THE LAST RECON FIX AT 0510 UTC...THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 1005 MB
BUT THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL...850 MB...WINDS WERE 46 KT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  TAKING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FROM THIS LEVEL
TO THE SURFACE STILL GIVES 35 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DATA BUOYS SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE MORE.  WSR-88D DOPPLER
RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE CENTER IS STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION.  WE ARE WAITING FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
MISSION TO SEE IF THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH
AS THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ENDING...AND THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 24 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING UP TO 24 HOURS...AND THE
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
 
RECON...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION.  ALEX IS
STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THE
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT.  HOWEVER....AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS SOON EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE ALEX
NORTHEASTWARD.  EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE 
PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPS THE STORM OFFSHORE THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
DICTATES THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES BE MAINTAINED.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 31.4N  79.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.2N  79.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.4N  77.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 35.3N  74.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 37.5N  70.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 49.0N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
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