Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ALEX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
ON THE LAST RECON FIX AT 0510 UTC...THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 1005 MB
BUT THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL...850 MB...WINDS WERE 46 KT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  TAKING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FROM THIS LEVEL
TO THE SURFACE STILL GIVES 35 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
SUBSEQUENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DATA BUOYS SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE MORE.  WSR-88D DOPPLER
RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE CENTER IS STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION.  WE ARE WAITING FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
MISSION TO SEE IF THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH
AS THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ENDING...AND THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 24 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING UP TO 24 HOURS...AND THE
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
 
RECON...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION.  ALEX IS
STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THE
STEERING FLOW IS WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT.  HOWEVER....AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS SOON EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE ALEX
NORTHEASTWARD.  EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE 
PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPS THE STORM OFFSHORE THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
DICTATES THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES BE MAINTAINED.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 31.4N  79.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.2N  79.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.4N  77.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 35.3N  74.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 37.5N  70.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 49.0N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 08:42:11 UTC