Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2003
 
...ERIKA CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD....
...AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE..
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO SOTO LA MARINA AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THIS AREA.
 
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  90.4
WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...700 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR NORTHEAST MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR  45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  IF THE STRENGTHENING OCCURS AS FORECAST...HURRICANE
WARNINGS COULD REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
 
REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...26.1 N... 90.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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