Hurricane ISABEL
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HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 10 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SAT SEP 13 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.5N 54.2W 58 X X X 58 TNCM 181N 631W X X X 5 5
21.5N 56.0W 20 16 1 X 37 TISX 177N 648W X X X 2 2
21.5N 58.0W X 19 7 1 27 TIST 183N 650W X X X 3 3
TFFR 163N 615W X X X 2 2 ST CROIX VI X X X 2 2
TAPA 171N 618W X X X 4 4 ST THOMAS VI X X X 3 3
TKPK 173N 627W X X X 4 4
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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