Hurricane PATRICIA
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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
0300Z FRI OCT 24 2003
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 112.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 112.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 112.3W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 112.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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