Hurricane PATRICIA
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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003
0300Z THU OCT 23 2003
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 108.6W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.9N 112.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.8N 113.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 109.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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