Hurricane OLAF

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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
1500Z MON OCT 06 2003
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF PUNTA SAN TELMO.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO
PUNTA SAN TELMO.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.3N 106.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.0N 108.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 106.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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