Hurricane OLAF

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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152003
2100Z SUN OCT 05 2003
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
TONIGHT.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OLAF.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.8N 107.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.7N 107.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.0N 108.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 105.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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