Hurricane NORA
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HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142003
0900Z SAT OCT 04 2003
...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY...
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 70SE 70SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 110.9W
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.8N 112.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.6N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 21.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.3N 114.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 111.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
FORECASTER AVILA
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