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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS


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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
2100Z THU OCT 16 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  47.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  47.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  46.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.3N  47.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.4N  48.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.3N  49.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N  49.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N  52.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  47.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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