Tropical Depression NINETEEN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192003
2100Z TUE OCT 14 2003
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 42.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 42.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 41.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.7N 43.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 12.5N 44.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.3N 44.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.2N 45.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 17.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 42.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
FORECASTER PASCH
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