Tropical Storm LARRY
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TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172003
2100Z THU OCT 02 2003
AT 5 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM VERACRUZ TO CAMPECHE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HR.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 93.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 75SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 125SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 93.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.5W
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N 93.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 75SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N 93.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 93.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 75SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N 93.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 75SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 45SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 95.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 93.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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