Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PATRICIA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A 25/1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
...INDICATES PATRICIA IS STILL A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ENE-WSW AND THE CONVECTION
REMAINS DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED
CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO COME
DOWN WITH TAFB REPORTING AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25 KT...
WHILE SAB AND AFWA COULD NOT DETERMINE AN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE
AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 25-KT
WINDS AND A FEW 35-40 KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED SPEEDS. THEREFORE... A
COMPROMISE IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY AND 30 KT IS MAINTAINED...
MAINLY IN BRIEF SQUALLS IN THE CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND CONTAINS SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS WITHIN IT...
THE PRIMARY SWIRL THAT HAS MAINTAINED ANY CONTINUITY AND SOME
CONVECTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THE ONE FARTHEST EAST. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST WITHIN THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVELOPE...BUT I AM STAYING
WITH THE ONE FARTHEST EAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY
KEEPING THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS DIVERGENT THAN
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE UKMET...GFDN...AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE
ALL MADE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACKS...WHILE THE GFS HAS MADE A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT
NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE PATRICIA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 
THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...COMBINED WITH WESTERLY SHEAR
AND THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SHOULD
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY KEEP THE WINDS BARELY AT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
STEADY WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW...AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS
PATRICIA ONGOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
...WHICH DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 48 AND 24 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 16.2N 114.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.9N 114.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 114.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N 114.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.7N 115.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC