Tropical Storm PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
LOW CENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. AND A WEAK RIDGE JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF PATRICIA.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS TURN A STRENGTHENING
STORM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A
WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION...BUT IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.
 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY
ABOUT 10 MORE KNOTS OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR
DOMINATES.  THE GFDL AGGRESSIVELY TAKES THE WIND SPEED TO OVER 100
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE GFDL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 10.9N 103.0W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 12.0N 105.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 12.6N 107.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 13.3N 108.6W    70 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 110.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     26/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W    50 KT
 
 
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