Hurricane OLAF

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HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
OLAF IS SHOWING LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WITH COLD BUT SHAPELESS CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND AFWA ARE NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  WITH
AN AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...I WILL WAIT UNTIL THEY ARRIVE TO CONFIRM THE
APPARENT WEAKENING TREND.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS OBSCURED AND THE INITIAL LOCATION AND
MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MICROWAVE AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF A CENTER PERHAPS 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING...NEAR WHERE THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER YESTERDAY.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OLAF IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND MUCH WEAKER...THAN INDICATED HERE...AND
SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ASSUMING THAT OLAF IS WHERE WE THINK IT IS...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL
BE GOVERNED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF OLAF...AND PERHAPS BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST IN 36-48 HOURS.  THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF NORA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS.   INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET
TAKES OLAF EASTWARD IMMEDIATELY AND DISSIPATES IT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE PASSES MENTIONED EARLIER.

IF OLAF MOVES NORTHWARD...IT SHOULD BE ENTERING A REGION OF HIGHER
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG FLOW
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS A
WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 19.4N 106.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 20.3N 106.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N 106.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 22.2N 106.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 23.3N 106.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 26.0N 108.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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