ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 OLAF IS SHOWING LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH COLD BUT SHAPELESS CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND AFWA ARE NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. WITH AN AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...I WILL WAIT UNTIL THEY ARRIVE TO CONFIRM THE APPARENT WEAKENING TREND. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS OBSCURED AND THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MICROWAVE AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF A CENTER PERHAPS 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING...NEAR WHERE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER YESTERDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OLAF IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND MUCH WEAKER...THAN INDICATED HERE...AND SOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASSUMING THAT OLAF IS WHERE WE THINK IT IS...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL BE GOVERNED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF OLAF...AND PERHAPS BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN 36-48 HOURS. THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF NORA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET TAKES OLAF EASTWARD IMMEDIATELY AND DISSIPATES IT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE PASSES MENTIONED EARLIER. IF OLAF MOVES NORTHWARD...IT SHOULD BE ENTERING A REGION OF HIGHER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 19.4N 106.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 20.3N 106.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 106.2W 65 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 22.2N 106.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 23.3N 106.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 26.0N 108.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC