Hurricane OLAF

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HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
OLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS DISAPPEARED AND AS A RESULT THE CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED.  HOWEVER...THE CUYUTLAN RADAR SHOWS A CIRCULAR
EYE...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH GOOD BANDING PATTERN. 
EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
MEASURED A 992 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WINDS AT 60 KTS TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT WAS LIMITED
IN TIME IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT OBSERVED.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KTS.  CURRENT SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME.  OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS 500 NM TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OLAF AND NORA WILL
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT...AND THIS SHOULD TURN OLAF
MORE NORTHWARD.  INDEED...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE
TWO MODELS THAT BEST DEPICT THE INTERACTION...CALL FOR OLAF TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS
APPEARS A BIT UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A LITTLE SLOWER
AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AT ABOUT 96 HR...BUT
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER ONSHORE MUCH EARLIER.  
 
SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THROUGH 48 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING
NORA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...
ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES
NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY
INCREASES.
 
INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED UPON RECON DATA AND
12-FOOT SEAS UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 17.8N 105.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.7N 106.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.8N 106.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N 107.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 24.2N 107.7W    80 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 26.6N 107.6W    35 KT...INLAND
 
 
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