Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
AN SSMI PASS AT 0210 UTC REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER.  THE LOCATION
OF THE CENTER WAS TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE LAST
ADVISORY PACKAGE BY ABOUT 45 NMI.  THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE POSITIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL TO THE LEFT OF THIS LOCATION.  A
COMPROMISE WAS TAKEN AND THE TRACK WAS RELOCATED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND.  HOWEVER...A QUICKSCAT PASS WAS ALSO RECEIVED CONFIRMING
THE LOCATION OF THE SSMI CENTER AND SHOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.  BASED UPON THIS DATA THE
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/8.  GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED WITH THE UKMET OFF TOWARD THE WEST
AND THE GFDL CURVING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL THE MEXICAN COAST AND MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MOUTH OF
THE SEA OF CORTEZ.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE
WHICH ALSO INCLUDES THE GUNS AND GUNA COMPOSITES.   

THE SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ASSUME KNOWLEDGE OF THE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THE CENTER WAS INCORRECTLY LOCATED
ON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE INTENSITY WAS TO HIGH.  ON THIS PACKAGE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KTS.  THE SHEAR OVER
OLAF IS DECREASING AND FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER. THE SSTS WILL
REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND LARGELY FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH MAKES OLAF A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  
 
THE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE IF THE CURRENT
MOTION PERSISTS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 16.7N 103.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 17.5N 104.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 18.2N 105.2W    70 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 105.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 19.8N 106.4W    80 KT
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 107.1W    80 KT
 96HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N 109.0W    80 KT
 
 
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