Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
LATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER 0332Z SSMI PASS
DEPICT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TUCKED IN BENEATH
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A
RAGGED BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
SHOULD PROVIDE A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL
AND GFDN DEPICT A WEAKER RIDGE OVER MEXICO...PLACING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO BY DAY 3. THE UKMET 0000Z RUN
INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM BUT INDICATED EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL STORM LARRY. NOGAPS AND THE GFS INDICATE A STRONGER
RIDGE...GFS REFLECTING THE STRONGEST OF THE TWO. BOTH ALSO SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND
OF THE GFS...NOGAPS AND THE GFDL THROUGH 72.
 
BASED ON RECENT IMAGERY...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LETTING UP. THE
SHIPS AND THE GFDL INTENSIFY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS. IN FACT...THE GFDL BRINGS THE
INTENSITY UP TO 105 KT IN 72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INCREASES IT
TO 77 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS. 

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 13.8N 100.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.4N 100.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.0N 101.4W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.6N 101.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.1N 102.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W    75 KT
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 17.3N 104.2W    75 KT
120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.8N 105.5W    75 KT
 
 
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