Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE DATA IN THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
SUGGESTED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WITH THE NORTHEASTERN PART
APPARENT IN FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE T1.5...OR 25 KT...BUT SHIP VRXO6 REPORTED 30
KT AT 12Z.  THIS WIND OBSERVATION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD BUT I WILL
GIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT AND SET THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO
30 KT.  THERE IS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. 
HOWEVER... THIS IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 

CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER MICROWAVE POSITIONS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL
MOTION OF ABOUT 8 KT...BUT THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST
SOMETHING SLOWER.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED...WITH
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...TO BE 290/6.  THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY
IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE FUTURE TRACK IS
COMPLICATED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM NORA TO ITS
WEST AND ATLANTIC STORM LARRY TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE SIMPLER
GUIDANCE MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ROUGHLY 7 KT...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER TRACK.  IN THE
GFS...THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD AFTER NORA MOVES AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY...BLOCKING THE DEPRESSION.  THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME EROSION OF THE HIGH AS LARRY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.  NEITHER THE
UKMET NOR THE NOGAPS HAS A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS
NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH...AND IS A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY DIVERGENT
BAMM...BAMS...AND GFS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 12.1N  99.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 12.4N 100.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 12.8N 101.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 13.1N 102.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 13.3N 103.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W    60 KT
 
 
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