ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003 OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE DATA IN THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO SUGGESTED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WITH THE NORTHEASTERN PART APPARENT IN FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE T1.5...OR 25 KT...BUT SHIP VRXO6 REPORTED 30 KT AT 12Z. THIS WIND OBSERVATION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD BUT I WILL GIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT AND SET THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 30 KT. THERE IS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... THIS IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. CONTINUITY WITH EARLIER MICROWAVE POSITIONS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 8 KT...BUT THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST SOMETHING SLOWER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...TO BE 290/6. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE FUTURE TRACK IS COMPLICATED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM NORA TO ITS WEST AND ATLANTIC STORM LARRY TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE SIMPLER GUIDANCE MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ROUGHLY 7 KT...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER TRACK. IN THE GFS...THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD AFTER NORA MOVES AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY...BLOCKING THE DEPRESSION. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME EROSION OF THE HIGH AS LARRY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. NEITHER THE UKMET NOR THE NOGAPS HAS A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS NOT QUICKLY ENOUGH...AND IS A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY DIVERGENT BAMM...BAMS...AND GFS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 12.1N 99.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 12.4N 100.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 12.8N 101.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 13.1N 102.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 103.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC