Hurricane NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003
 
ANOTHER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z INDICATES THAT THE WINDS IN NORA
CONTINUE TO COME DOWN...WITH ONLY SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS. 
THE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.
NORA IS OVER 26C WATER AND LOOKS TO BE NEARLY SURROUNDED BY STABLE
AIR.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AND DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF NORA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST
TRACK.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY. WITH THE RELOCATION OF OLAF
AWAY FROM NORA...NO SIGNIFICANT BINARY INTERACTION IS
EXPECTED...AND AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A REFLECTION DOWN TO
AT LEAST 850 MB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT SOULD BEGIN TO
TAKE NORA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
DIVERGENT...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN A DECAYING SYSTEM IN A
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA
CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 20.2N 113.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 22.0N 112.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 24.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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