Tropical Storm NORA

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TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF NORA
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 
NOW 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND KGWC.  THE INTENSITY 
IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. 

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORA ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH NORA MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A WEAK RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LEFT-MOST MODEL...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST
OF NORA.  AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MAY CAUSE A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST A LITTLE
SLOWER.  THE TRACK IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 

SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THE 
THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS NORA TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWED THIS CLOSELY.  INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS.  IN THE LONGER RANGE...NORA SHOULD WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY AS SSTS DECREASE AND THE SHEAR BECOMES QUITE STRONG.
   
FORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 15.1N 109.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.3N 109.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.0N 110.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     08/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W    35 KT
 
 
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