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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE SMALL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 435 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE  PAST 12 HOURS.
AN EARLIER BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION...TEMPS BELOW -80C... HAS
ABATED SOME...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN
IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A
CONSENSUS T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ALSO...A
01/1652 SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS SPIRALING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING STARTED AS 25-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. TD-14E HAS BEEN MOVING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOME LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE GFDL...
NOGAPS...AND GFS TAKE THE DEPRESSION BASICALLY SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE NOGAPS BEING THE SLOWEST OF THE
THREE MODELS. THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS MOVE
THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR 36-48 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD INDICATING THAT RECURVATURE MAY OCCUR BY 120
HOURS. THE NORTHWARD MOTION AND ANY RECURVATURE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON THE INTENSITY AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF
HAWAII WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY
72 HOURS ALONG 120W LONGITUDE. THE MODELS THAT TAKE THE DEPRESSION
WESTWARD KEEP IT AS A WEAK SYSTEM...WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHWARD
MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE TD-14E IS
CURRENTLY A SMALL DIAMETER TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT APPEARS TO BE
FAIRLY DEEP IN THE VERTICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL...WHICH DID QUITE WELL IN PREDICTING THE
EARLY RECURVATURE THAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE MARTY.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO NEAR 50 KT IN
60-72 HOURS...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS IT AS SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE SHEAR
DEVELOPS...TD-14E IS FORECAST TO BE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...COMBINED WITH
LOW SHEAR AND 28C SSTS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR SOME RAPID AND/OR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY
AIR TO THE WEST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME EASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR MAY UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
DICTATES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 15.8N 108.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.7N 110.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.8N 111.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.2N 112.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    60 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC