ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE SMALL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 435 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN EARLIER BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION...TEMPS BELOW -80C... HAS ABATED SOME...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN IT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A CONSENSUS T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ALSO...A 01/1652 SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS SPIRALING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING STARTED AS 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. TD-14E HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOME LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE GFDL... NOGAPS...AND GFS TAKE THE DEPRESSION BASICALLY SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE NOGAPS BEING THE SLOWEST OF THE THREE MODELS. THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS MOVE THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR 36-48 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD INDICATING THAT RECURVATURE MAY OCCUR BY 120 HOURS. THE NORTHWARD MOTION AND ANY RECURVATURE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTENSITY AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY 72 HOURS ALONG 120W LONGITUDE. THE MODELS THAT TAKE THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD KEEP IT AS A WEAK SYSTEM...WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHWARD MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE TD-14E IS CURRENTLY A SMALL DIAMETER TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY DEEP IN THE VERTICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL...WHICH DID QUITE WELL IN PREDICTING THE EARLY RECURVATURE THAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE MARTY. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO NEAR 50 KT IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS IT AS SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE SHEAR DEVELOPS...TD-14E IS FORECAST TO BE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...COMBINED WITH LOW SHEAR AND 28C SSTS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR SOME RAPID AND/OR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR MAY UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DICTATES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 15.8N 108.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 15.7N 110.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 15.8N 111.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 16.2N 112.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC