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Hurricane MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED
FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  AVERAGING THE 06Z T AND CI NUMBERS
YIELDS 45 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB.  SINCE THE
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 335/12. MARTY CONTINUES UP THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASING AS INDICATED
BY EARLIER TRACK GUIDANCE. MARTY IS BUMPING UP AGAINST A MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOW. THE GFDL IN FACT SUGGESTS THAT MARTY WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR
FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE CENTER INTO
THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE STALLING IT. OTHER
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING ON TO A TRACKABLE CENTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND STALLS
THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.

THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BUT REMAIN STRONG.  THIS SHEARING FLOW...COUPLED
WITH THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCES OF NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN...IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES...
PERHAPS WITH 24-36 HOURS.

MOISTURE AND RAINS FROM MARTY ARE SPREADING INTO ARIZONA...NEW
MEXICO...AND WEST TEXAS.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 28.8N 112.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N 113.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N 114.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC